Yesterday, US President George W. Bush took off his oilman's boots long enough to do an about face on climate change. Apparently new evidence has convinced him that the science is now correct.
He then slipped the old boots back on when he explained his plans for the US response, which have widely been interpreted as an attempt to scupper the more ambitious EU proposal for a global cap-and-trade system. With no timetables, targets or enforcement mechanism, you can understand the interpretation.
In reality, this news is not important. It may shift the carbom markets, but will not change government or corporate calculations.
The devil of climate change policy was never in the direction, it was always going to be in the detail. The decisions that governments and companies need to make are tough ones. They depend on predictable and consistent information about the policy framework - both at the national and international levels, both now and 10 years into the future.
BP just cancelled a carbon-capture trial project in the UK, even though the UK is as friendly a jurisdiction as exists, and even though carbon-capture is touted as an important part of the suite of solutions - i.e. a potentially huge money-maker for the company that perfects the technique.
Why did BP end its investment? Because making money by doing the right thing relies on an enabling environment that just does not exist at the moment. Not predictablity; no planning; no investment; no change.
Responsible business requires responsible government.
Bush's about-face is the same dog with the same spots chasing the same scruffy tale. One can only watch and wonder.
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